Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has highlighted NATO's key role in European defense. However, concerns over Donald Trump’s potential re-election—particularly the risk of cutting aid to Ukraine or weakening NATO’s deterrence—are pushing European states to make an effort to bear more of the burden. To that end, many of them have either reached or surpassed the 2% threshold that they long pledged but failed to fulfill. They are also taking steps to bolster NATO’s European pillar and ensure sustained support to Ukraine. Simultaneously, the European Union continues to build an autonomous defense capability to reduce reliance on the United States. With escalating geopolitical risks, there is a conducive environment for non-EU NATO countries like the UK and Turkey to participate more actively in European defense.
