For most of the past year, the war in Ukraine and Washington’s strategic competition with China dominated the global agenda. Then came the October 7 Hamas onslaught against Israel creating yet another maelstrom of uncertainty for the Middle East and beyond, leading me to say in an earlier post that at present Washington and its European allies are neither at war nor in peace. Today, Western countries do not have troops on the ground fighting in Ukraine, but they are deeply involved in the conflict providing Kyiv with huge sums of military assistance and military advice. They are not at war with Hamas, but they are politically involved. In brief, one may say with some exaggeration, that today Washington and its European allies are fighting a one-and-a-half war.
The US and EU countries have provided Ukraine with billions of dollars of military and economic support over the last two years. However, the conflict has turned into a war of attrition and thus a long-term economic, political, and security challenge for the West, particularly for Europe. Washington and Kyiv are now in search of a new strategy after Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive failed to yield the expected results. Russia is weakened but victory over Russia remains a chimera, and despite Washington’s and EU’s unwavering commitment to continue to provide strong political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as it takes, there are signs of fatigue in the West. The EU countries are not completely united on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Western capitals still stress the importance of the “rules-based international order” but less frequently. Because they know that the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and the regime change projects in Libya and Syria were violations of that very order.
Western observers generally admit that Ukraine is not going to become a member of NATO while the war goes on. The reality is, under any future peace agreement Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO, but EU membership is an achievable objective. In fact, on December 14, The European Council decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and with the Republic of Moldova.
“Pivot to Asia” has for long been Washington’s global foreign and security policy priority but the war in Ukraine had not allowed Washington to focus on the Indo-Pacific region. The war has brought Russia and China closer to one another despite the reserved position of the latter. The war in Gaza is another distraction that has not served American interests, particularly in the Global South.
On November 15, Presidents Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping of China held talks in San Francisco on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting. All in all, the meeting did not resolve outstanding problems between the two powers but helped reduce tensions, and perhaps reflected an understanding as to how “strategic competition” would continue thereon. The agreement of the two leaders that their teams would follow up on their discussions in San Francisco with continued high-level diplomacy and interactions, including visits in both directions and ongoing working-level consultations in key areas was a positive signal.
As Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, Mr. Netanyahu has done great services to his country. He has successfully steered the Trump administration’s Middle East policy to Israel’s advantage and secured firstly, the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by Washington, and secondly, the normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco under the “Abraham Accords”. These countries reached out to Israel because while Iran exports revolution, Israel exports technology and know-how. Saudi Arabia was also expected to normalize relations with Israel soon. All of this made the question of Palestine somewhat of a secondary issue. However, like other power-addicted Middle East leaders, Mr. Netanyahu could not give up. He formed the most far-right government in the history of Israel which authorized new settlements on the West Bank and made life tougher for the Palestinians living there. Thus came the shock of the Hamas attack on October 7.
Initially, Western countries led by Washington expressed unreserved support for Israel. However, as Israel’s expanding military response to the attack started causing a rising number of civilian casualties the picture began to change. After the US vetoed two UN Security Council draft resolutions, the UN General Assembly adopted, on 12 December, a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire with 153 countries voting in favor, 23 abstaining, and 10 countries voting against, among them Israel and the US. At present European governments are struggling to find the right combination of the words, “pause”, “truce”, “ceasefire”, “immediate”, and “sustainable”.
The 1967 Arab-Israeli war had lasted six days, hence referred to as the Six-Day War. Today is the 73rd day of the war in Gaza. And by all indications, IDF’s military operations are likely to extend into the new year.
The long-term challenge is finding an answer to the question “What after the fighting ends?” The West and many other countries express support for the “two-state solution”. This has always been a long shot and the Israeli government’s public discourse does not allow for much optimism, at least for now. Last week, it was reported that Israeli leaders have been privately urging the Biden administration to refrain from publicly talking about the two-state solution.[i] Moreover, “There will be no Palestinian state here. We will never allow another state to be established between Jordan and the (Mediterranean) sea,” said Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, a member of the Likud Party. Whether this was an expression of anger or reflected the Netanyahu government’s long-term policy remains to be seen.
But the immediate challenge is preventing the widening of the conflict. The Israeli government believes that Tehran and groups that are regarded as its Middle East proxies such as Hezbollah and Houthis support Hamas. Would the defeat of Hamas in Gaza mark the end of the war for the Israeli government or would it feel impelled to somehow punish them too? In an earlier post, I said that Iran would continue its support to Hamas, Hezbollah, and other anti-Israel groups, but not to the brink of war. However, the Israeli government’s perception of the importance of this support also matters. Houthi attacks on international shipping may also trigger a wider response.
The reporting from Gaza with pictures and videos of Palestinians trying to escape IDF attacks in cars, fully loaded pickups, and on horse or donkey-drawn carts have shown the dire straits confronting the people of the Strip not only in war but also in peace. What is of serious concern for the international community is the high number of civilian casualties in Gaza, in particular the death of 6-7000 children, and the lack of food and medical care.
In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Putin on the grounds that he bears individual criminal responsibility for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and the unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.[ii] The loss of children is always a tragedy.
Another tragedy of war is friendly fire. Last week IDF troops mistakenly identified three Israeli hostages in northern Gaza as a threat and opened fire at them, killing them and leading to questions regarding IDF’s rules of engagement.
Migration, the dream of many in conflict areas, remains a challenge for the West. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported yesterday that more than 60 migrants were believed to have drowned in a shipwreck off the coast of Libya. The risks of reaching Europe on a flimsy vessel aside, traveling from Afghanistan to Libya in the hands of traffickers must in itself be the challenge of a lifetime.
2024 Will witness two important elections. Russian and American presidential elections will be held on March 15–17, and November 5 respectively. The result of the former is a certainty. The prelude to the latter will be watched across the world with deep interest since a growing percentage of Americans are opposed to a Biden-Trump rematch.
As for Türkiye, there is not much to be said. The decline continues.
[i] https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-urging-us-not-to-talk-publicly-about-two-state-solution-officials/
[ii] https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
